From Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve - DRINKING ALCOHOL – GOLDEN RULE No. 4 - KNOW YOUR DRINKING CAPACITY or ALCOHOL TOLERANCE The “Flash” Point and The “Fire” Point

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: DRINKING CAPACITY or ALCOHOL TOLERANCE

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve - Book Review of The Importance of Living by Lin Yutang: HOW TO ENJOY THE FEAST OF LIFE

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: HOW TO ENJOY THE FEAST OF LIFE: 


Click the link above to read HOW TO ENJOY THE FEAST OF LIFE A Happy and Carefree Philosophy of Life Book Review By VIKRAM KARVE 

HOW TO SURVIVE IN AN INCOMPATIBLE RELATIONSHIP – MARRIAGE – COMFORT LEVEL and MARRIED LIFE – LIKES and DISLIKES

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: MARRIAGE - COMFORT LEVEL and MARRIED - LIFE LIKES and DISLIKES

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: WHO IS THE BOSS - TGIF Musing

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WHY YOUR BOSS IS AN ARSEHOLE - TGIF Musing

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: WHO IS THE BOSS - TGIF Musing:

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: HOW TO REMAIN HAPPILY UNMARRIED

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: HOW TO REMAIN HAPPILY UNMARRIED: HOW TO REMAIN HAPPILY UNMARRIED Food for Thought By VIKRAM KARVE There is a beautiful and bright young Techie Girl who lives in my neighbou...

Musings on CV RESUME and ONLINE PROFILE - YOUR BLOG IS YOUR BEST RESUME

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: YOUR BLOG IS YOUR BEST RESUME


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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve PARTING GIFT - My Favourite Short Stories Part 95

IS MAKING DIVORCE EASIER A GOOD IDEA?

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: PARTING GIFT - My Favourite Short Stories Part 95


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Dikri To Parki Thapan Kahevay - WHY PARENTS WANT SONS, NOT DAUGHTERS

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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: WHY PARENTS WANT SONS, NOT DAUGHTERS - GIRL CHILD - PARKI THAPAN - PARAYA DHAN - Dikri To Parki Thapan Kahevay

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: WHY PARENTS WANT SONS, NOT DAUGHTERS - GIRL CHILD - PARKI THAPAN - PARAYA DHAN - Dikri To Parki Thapan Kahevay

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HOUSE HUNTING IN PUNE - 5 TIPS FOR BUYING PROPERTY - from Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: HOUSE HUNTING IN PUNE - 5 TIPS FOR BUYING PROPERTY

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HOUSE HUNTING IN PUNE - 5 TIPS FOR PROPERTY BUYING

MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 3

By 

VIKRAM KARVE

Continued from Part 2… 

REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY

THE MYSTERY OF INVENTORY OVERHANG

MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 2

http://karvediat.blogspot.in/2012/04/real-estate-prices-in-pune-hype-and.html

Are you thinking of buying a HOME in PUNE right NOW? 

Firstly, please note – I said HOME not HOUSE. 

A home is where you plan to live with your family. If you are thinking of buying a house for investment, or to earn money by renting out, then maybe some of the things I am going to say may not be entirely applicable. 

The second important word is PUNE. 

Why Pune? 

Unless you have got a very strong reason to settle down in Pune it is not really worthwhile to buy a home in Pune. Considering the poor infrastructure (terrible roads, traffic chaos, poor public transport and connectivity, frequent disruptions of electricity and load-shedding, water shortages, et al) and the unexceptional quality of life, the exorbitant property prices in Pune are not justified at all. 

Yes, you will not get value for your money in Pune as you may in some other place. 

Remember, Pune is no longer the charming town it used to be – I think the city has reached saturation point and is almost bursting at its seams and the infrastructure is simply not able to cope up with the burgeoning population and proliferating concrete jungle. 

The third key word is NOW. 

Hold your horses. Be patient. Wait for real estate prices to correct and stabilize. Like I said I am a novice, but some of my “knowledgeable” friends say that a recession is round the corner and real estate prices in Pune are going to fall. 

TIP No. 1 – ONE LOOK IS WORTH A THOUSAND REPORTS 

A few years ago we attended a slick presentation by the sales team of a reputed builder trying convince a gullible young group of upwardly mobile persons to book an apartment in an upcoming project in Pune. 

“It’s just a five minute drive to the Railway Station,” they said. 

Today, a guy who bought an apartment there, considers himself lucky if he can reach the railway station in less than an hour negotiating the heavy chaotic traffic of Pune and with the delays at traffic jams at numerous traffic signals enroute. (Yes, the railway station is precisely 8 kilometers away, but is it possible to drive at an average  speed of 96 kmph to cover 8 Kms in 5 minutes? This may be possible on the expressway but certainly not in Pune City where you can barely get an average speed of 10 kmph). 

“Beautiful green open spaces surround the project,” they said. 

My friend finds himself in the midst of a concrete jungle, surrounded by a crowd of tall buildings which ensure the sun hardly ever reaches his first floor home. There is noise pollution and air pollution from the road below. Tell me, who is going to leave open spaces open anymore? If you find an open space be sure that a building will come up there or worse still a slum my proliferate rapidly covering all the left over open spaces. 

This example brings me to Tip No. 1 - One Look Is Worth A Thousand Reports.

There is an ancient saying:

Don’t Marry a Girl Without Seeing the Girl

and 

Don’t Buy Land (House) Without Seeing the Land (House).

Well this applies to all types of property and real estate, whether it is land, a bungalow, a row house or an apartment. You must visit the site and see the property for yourself. Also you must ensure that what you see is what you get and for this it is always better to buy a home in a project that is ready, otherwise you may in for a big surprise.                

In Pune the most important aspect to consider is location. Commuting is a nightmare in Pune and things are only going to get worse. One cannot see any urgent efforts at improving the road network, and in the absence of efficient public transport, vehicles are rapidly proliferating and the traffic scene is going to get even more chaotic every passing day.

In peak hours there are continuous traffic jams and it sometimes takes me more time for me get to Koregaon Park (25 kms) from my home in Wakad than it takes me to get to Belapur in Navi Mumbai more than 100 kms away by the expressway. Petrol prices are rising day by day too.

So make sure your home is near your workplace, your wife’s office, your children’s’ schools and all the other places you are likely to frequent. 

Tip No. 2 - SKIP THE FRILLS 

Remember it is you who are going to pay for all those fancy things in the project – and it is a maintenance headache too. Do you really require all those fancy high-tech “intelligent home” gadgets which will be rendered useless by the frequent electric power failures which prevail in Pune? The only things I find useful are generator back-up and a good gym for exercise. 

Tip No. 3 - MAKE SURE WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET 

Always buy a ready possession house. Choose your particular flat where you intend to live in, and do not make a decision by just seeing a sample flat. As I brought out earlier, things will look vastly different before and after construction. 

A friend who booked a house before construction started in a pre-launch offer (impressed by the open fields surrounding the project) now finds himself staring into the balcony of the neighbouring building which has sprung up. 

Also, why take a risk in the prevailing scenario where a project execution may be inordinately delayed or at worst may never see the light of day? 

Tip No. 4 – BEWARE OF THE WORD “ANNEXE” 

In the English Language, the word Annexe means Extension. 

In Real Estate parlance the word Annexe may have different connotations, especially in Pune. 

Thus “Aundh Annexe” may be nowhere near Aundh, but in the back of beyond across the river.

Kondhwa Annexe may be somewhere way off in Undri or Mohammadwadi, Koregaon Park Annexe may be way beyong Ghorpuri or Mundhwa and Wakad Annexe may be many kilometres away from Wakad in some out-of-the-way place. 

You've got the drift haven’t you – they just cash in on the name of the nearest upcoming or posh locality to hype their project. 

Tip No. 5 – TRY BEFORE YOU BUY (Have a DRY RUN) 

In fact the best thing to do is to have a Dry Run. Take a house on rent in the locality (or better still in the building complex) in which you intend to buy your home and you will experience first hand the pros and cons of living there, especially the social infrastructure. 

Like I said, don’t get carried away by all that “created” hype. Be patient. Look around. Try out some more localities or ask your friends living there. Rest assured that you will get a good deal. Everything comes to him who waits. 

Bye for now. I will share some more lessons I learnt as a novice first time home buyer right here in my blog. 

Till then tell me if you found my tips useful and remember the ancient saying:

Don’t Marry a Girl Without Seeing the Girl and Don’t Buy a House Without Seeing the House. 

Happy House Hunting…!!!

To be continued in MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 4 ...

VIKRAM KARVE 

Copyright © Vikram Karve 2012
Vikram Karve has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this work.
© vikram karve., all rights reserved.

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Foodie Book:  Appetite for a Stroll
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About Vikram Karve

A creative person with a zest for life, Vikram Karve is a retired Naval Officer turned full time writer. Educated at IIT Delhi, ITBHU Varanasi, The Lawrence School Lovedale and Bishops School Pune, Vikram has published two books: COCKTAIL a collection of fiction short stories about relationships (2011) and APPETITE FOR A STROLL a book of Foodie Adventures (2008) and is currently working on his novel and a book of vignettes and short fiction. An avid blogger, he has written a number of fiction short stories, creative non-fiction articles on a variety of topics including food, travel, philosophy, academics, technology, management, health, pet parenting, teaching stories and self help in magazines and published a large number of professional research papers in journals and edited in-house journals for many years, before the advent of blogging. Vikram has taught at a University as a Professor for almost 15 years and now teaches as a visiting faculty and devotes most of his time to creative writing. Vikram lives in Pune India with his family and muse - his pet dog Sherry with whom he takes long walks thinking creative thoughts.

Vikram Karve Academic and Creative Writing Journal: http://karvediat.blogspot.com
Professional Profile Vikram Karve: http://www.linkedin.com/in/karve
Vikram Karve Facebook Page:  https://www.facebook.com/vikramkarve
Vikram Karve Creative Writing Blog: http://vikramkarve.sulekha.com/blog/posts.htm
Email: vikramkarve@sify.com

© vikram karve., all rights reserved.

   

 

REPARTEE - OLQ - Officer Like Qualities

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: REPARTEE

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ARE WAKAD HINJEWADI PROPERTY PRICES GOING TO FALL - REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY - The Mystery of Inventory Overhang

ARE PROPERTY PRICES IN WAKAD HINJEWADI PUNE GOING TO FALL or RISE?


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Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY

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REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY - The Mystery of Inventory Overhang - Are Property Prices going to Rise or Fall in Wakad

Academic and Creative Writing Journal Vikram Karve: REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY

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The article is also posted below for your convenience:

REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY

REAL ESTATE PRICES IN PUNE – HYPE AND REALITY

THE MYSTERY OF INVENTORY OVERHANG

MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 2

By

VIKRAM KARVE

Continued from Part 1…

WHY ARE PROPERTY RATES SO HIGH IN WAKAD PUNE

MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 1

http://karvediat.blogspot.in/2012/03/why-are-property-rates-so-high-in-wakad.html

If you want to, do read Part 1, but remember to come back here and read Part 2, or you can always read Part 1 after you have read Part 2 - so read on ...

THE MYSTERY OF INVENTORY OVERHANG

Before I delve into mystery of INVENTORY OVERHANG let me tell you a Mulla Nasrudin story called THE CAT AND THE KABABS

One day the gourmet Mulla Nasrudin bought five kilos of the tastiest kababs  from the best restaurant in town to enjoy with his friends in the evening party he had organized for his closest friends.

He gave them to his wife with explicit instructions in how to serve them in the evening party and went out for a walk.

Mulla Nasrudin’s wife garnished the kababs and kept them in serving plates on the dining table.

Suddenly, her sister and her kids arrived unexpectedly.

Mulla Nasrudin’s wife’s noticed that her sister and her kids were staring at the mouth-watering kababs in hungry anticipation, so the wife asked her sister and her kids if they would like to taste a kabab.

“Yes,” they all said and so the wife, her sister and her kids tasted a kabab each.

The melt-in-the-mouth kababs were so delicious and tasty that they could not resist the temptation to eat a few more.

They loved the kababs so much that, while gossiping, they unconsciously kept popping the kababs into their mouths, till suddenly all the kababs were finished.

Then the wife’s sister and her kids said goodbye and left.

Mulla Nasrudin’s wife realized that the kababs were finished.

To salvage the situation Mulla Nasrudin’s wife quickly prepared pakoras to be served in lie of the kababs.

When Mulla Nasrudin’s friends arrived they were served pakoras instead of kababs.

After his friends had left, a furious Nasrudin demanded an explanation from his wife about why kababs were not served.

His wife meekly said that the pet cat ate up all the kababs.

“There were 5 kilos of kababs.  Don’t tell me the cat ate up the full 5 kilos of kababs,” Nasrudin shouted.

“Yes. Your cat ate all the kababs - the full 5 kilos. Why don’t you ask your darling cat instead of scolding me?” his wife said.

Mulla Nasrudin caught hold of his cat and put the cat on the weighing scale.

The cat weighed exactly 5 kilos.

Nasrudin looked at his wife and said, “The cat weighs 5 kilos and the kababs were 5 kilos.”

Nasrudin’s wife said, “So?”

Now, tell me my dear wife,” Nasrudin asked, pointing to the cat sitting on the weighing scale:

“If this is the cat then where are the kababs?

On the contrary if these are the kababs then where is the cat?”

ARE PROPERTY RATES GOING TO RISE or FALL IN WAKAD PUNE ?

Please keep this story in the back of your mind while we discuss the impact of inventory overhang on real estate prices, especially in Wakad Pune.

In real estate the only factor which determines property prices is the DEMAND versus SUPPLY Equation. 

Thus, if you want to estimate whether the real estate rates are going to rise or fall you must have some idea of the Demand – Supply situation in the location where you want to invest in property. 

But how do you do it? 

Well, one quantitative measure of the Demand versus Supply Equation is a term called INVENTORY OVERHANG.

Inventory Overhang is the number of months it will take for all the unsold supply of units in the market to be sold out at the current sales velocity (rate at which housing units are being sold). 

To give you an example, say in the location of Wakad, there are 1000 apartments available for booking in launched, ongoing and completed housing projects and say about 50 apartments are beings sold per month (sales velocity=50) then the inventory overhang will be 1000/50 = 20 months. Thus, we can reasonably forecast that it will take 20 months for the unsold supply of units in Wakad to be sold out at the current rate at which units are being sold (sales velocity).

However, it is not so simple, since both the supply and demand are variables and the number of unsold units will keep fluctuating depending on increase in supply as new projects are launched and also increase or decrease in sales velocity.

Price Appreciation is inversely proportional to Inventory Overhang.

The lower the inventory overhang the faster and higher the prices of property are going to rise and the higher the inventory overhang the slower the property rates are going to rise.

In fact, if the inventory overhang exceeds the “safe” limit (20 months or so) then property rates are likely to fall.

So if you are an investor you better estimate the inventory overhang before you invest in property at a certain location.

But does all this theory work in actual practice?

Let’s take a hypothetical example of Wakad in Pune where I live.

Now Wakad is a huge spread out place. In Wakad, the general infrastructure is very poor and the Social Infrastructure is almost non-existent. The current property rate in Wakad is certainly not commensurate with the infrastructure and amenities.

If you walk around the fast emerging concrete jungle proliferating all over the place, you will realise that there is probably a huge oversupply of residential apartments, due to a large number of ongoing realty projects, and, if you ask around, it seems that hardly anyone seems to be buying flats.

This means that in Wakad Pune the inventory overhang is quite large.

Is the inventory overhang 20 months, 24 months or even more? I will not risk even a rough guesstimate since, as a layman, I do not have any authentic data. That is the real problem for a layman – it is difficult to get credible data regarding supply and demand (in view of the opaque nature of the realty sector). Whereas the likely availability of units may be relatively easy to compute based on the data given by developers in their brochures and advertisements, it may not be possible to accurately compute the sales velocity since developers may like to be discreet about actual sales.

Of course, if you are really interested, one way to get reliable data is to go to the municipal authorities and find out (by RTI or otherwise) the number of property sales registered and the dates from which property tax is being levied. But doing all this may be quite difficult for the layman. So the inventory overhang you compute is at best a guesstimate.

Now, as I said, by sheer observation it appears that the inventory overhang in Wakad is quite large. Also, as supply keeps on increasing due to new launches of residential projects, which happens almost every day, the inventory overhang will grow even larger and larger by the day.

This means that hypothetically, at least in Wakad, the property prices are certainly not going to appreciate very much. Theoretically speaking, property rates in Wakad may even decline in the near future like they did a few years ago, in 2009 I think.

The inventory overhang keeps rising, the number of unsold flats keeps increasing, but despite this, the property prices, actually keep rising, instead of falling. It seems that the inventory overhang theory is turned topsy-turvy.

Intriguing, isn’t it? How can this happen? Are there any hidden factors? Or is it all hype? Or is it a case of artificial demand being created? Will this realty “bubble” ever burst?

Well, I can only comment that IN REALTY HYPE MATTERS MORE THAN REALITY.

Why doesn’t the theory of Inventory Overhang work in practice?

Is this strange phenomenon of high prices despite oversupply happening only in Pune or is it a common occurrence everywhere?

You tell me.

Can you solve this mystery?

Well, you figure it out.

Maybe the answer to this paradox lies in the Mulla Nasrudin Story I told you earlier –The Cat and The Kababs

Till next time, Happy House Hunting

To be continued in MUSINGS OF A NOVICE SELF-STYLED PROPERTY GURU Part 3 ...

VIKRAM KARVE 

Copyright © Vikram Karve 2012
Vikram Karve has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this work.
© vikram karve., all rights reserved.

Did you like this blog post?
I am sure you will like the 27 fiction short stories from my recently published anthology of Short Fiction COCKTAIL 
To order your COCKTAIL please click any of the links below:
http://www.flipkart.com/cocktail-vikram-karve-short-stories-book-8191091844?affid=nme
http://www.indiaplaza.in/cocktail-vikram-karve/books/9788191091847.htm
http://www.apkpublishers.com/books/short-stories/cocktail-by-vikram-karve.html

COCKTAIL ebook
If you prefer reading ebooks on Kindle or your ebook reader, please order Cocktail E-book by clicking the links below:
AMAZON
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005MGERZ6
SMASHWORDS
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/87925

Foodie Book:  Appetite for a Stroll
If your are a Foodie you will like my book of Food Adventures APPETITE FOR A STROLL. Do order a copy from FLIPKART:
http://www.flipkart.com/appetite-stroll-vikram-karve/8190690094-gw23f9mr2o

About Vikram Karve

A creative person with a zest for life, Vikram Karve is a retired Naval Officer turned full time writer. Educated at IIT Delhi, ITBHU Varanasi, The Lawrence School Lovedale and Bishops School Pune, Vikram has published two books: COCKTAIL a collection of fiction short stories about relationships (2011) and APPETITE FOR A STROLL a book of Foodie Adventures (2008) and is currently working on his novel and a book of vignettes and short fiction. An avid blogger, he has written a number of fiction short stories, creative non-fiction articles on a variety of topics including food, travel, philosophy, academics, technology, management, health, pet parenting, teaching stories and self help in magazines and published a large number of professional research papers in journals and edited in-house journals for many years, before the advent of blogging. Vikram has taught at a University as a Professor for almost 15 years and now teaches as a visiting faculty and devotes most of his time to creative writing. Vikram lives in Pune India with his family and muse - his pet dog Sherry with whom he takes long walks thinking creative thoughts.

Vikram Karve Academic and Creative Writing Journal: http://karvediat.blogspot.com
Professional Profile Vikram Karve: http://www.linkedin.com/in/karve
Vikram Karve Facebook Page:  https://www.facebook.com/vikramkarve
Vikram Karve Creative Writing Blog: http://vikramkarve.sulekha.com/blog/posts.htm
Email: vikramkarve@sify.com

© vikram karve., all rights reserved.